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Northwest Florida Retail Sales
by Michael Scheibe, MBA
 The Northwest Florida region’s retail sales totaled nearly $4.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007, down 4.6 percent from the previous year. According to the Census Bureau, the retail sales figures for the nation increased 5 percent over the same period. The retail sales in the region are measured according to data on taxable retail sales that is collected and distributed by the Florida Department of Revenue.
Despite the region as a whole being down 4.6 percent from the previous year, four of the counties did have gains. Liberty County and Franklin County had the largest percentage increases at 7.6 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. The largest percentage declines among the counties were Holmes County and Gulf County at -15 percent and -11.9 percent, respectively.
In the fourth quarter of 2007, four counties accounted for over 80 percent ($3.5 billion) of the taxable retail sales. Escambia County and Leon County were the two largest contributors at 25 percent (nearly $1.1 billion) and 22.6 percent ($987 million), respectively. Therefore, twelve of the Northwest Florida counties collectively accounted for less than 20 percent ($854 million) of the region’s total. Santa Rosa was the largest out of these twelve with a 5.9 percent ($258 million) contribution while Liberty was the smallest at 0.2 percent ($6.8 million).
Even though declines in consumer spending are the driving force behind these figures, there is another variable to consider, E-commerce sales. On a national scale the Census Bureau states “E-commerce sales in the fourth quarter of 2007 accounted for 3.9 percent of total sales.” Interestingly, fourth quarter 2007 E-commerce sales have increased 18.2 percent from the previous year. Unfortunately, the amount of Northwest Florida’s retail sales that have transferred to E-commerce sales cannot be determined at this time.
The Northwest Florida Retail Sales graph shows actual monthly sales, a seasonally adjusted monthly figure, and a forecasted range. The seasonally adjusted monthly data has been trending downward over the past two years. The near term forecast for the Northwest Florida region indicates only minor changes in upcoming retail sales when compared to the most recent retail sales figures. As the graph indicates, the peaks and the troughs in the forecast appear only slightly scaled back when compared to the previous year’s data.
| Table 1. Quarterly Retail Sales |
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Non Seasonally Adjusted Taxable Sales |
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Changes in Taxable Sales (percent) |
2007 |
|
2006 - 2007 |
1st Quarter |
2nd Quarter |
3rd Quarter |
4th Quarter |
|
1st Quarter |
2nd Quarter |
3rd Quarter |
4th Quarter |
| Bay |
741.1 |
862.6 |
829.0 |
686.7 |
|
-0.3 |
-1.4 |
-1.4 |
-4.5 |
| Calhoun |
15.9 |
15.4 |
15.1 |
14.2 |
|
4.6 |
-7.9 |
-1.9 |
-7.8 |
| Escambia |
1,110.6 |
1,170.6 |
1,116.2 |
1,089.2 |
|
-4.2 |
-5.0 |
-4.5 |
-6.4 |
| Franklin |
26.6 |
45.2 |
41.5 |
26.7 |
|
-3.1 |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
1.6 |
| Gadsden |
80.1 |
80.4 |
78.1 |
73.8 |
|
7.5 |
7.9 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
| Gulf |
21.6 |
29.7 |
26.1 |
18.5 |
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-15.6 |
-3.4 |
-17.5 |
-11.9 |
| Holmes |
18.3 |
19.1 |
17.2 |
16.4 |
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-3.9 |
-5.7 |
-12.0 |
-15.0 |
| Jackson |
107.3 |
111.2 |
109.9 |
110.2 |
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-0.5 |
-2.7 |
-0.9 |
-2.6 |
| Jefferson |
12.6 |
13.5 |
12.4 |
13.3 |
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-1.8 |
0.7 |
-4.5 |
-0.6 |
| Leon |
971.6 |
955.3 |
952.4 |
987.2 |
|
0.8 |
-3.1 |
-2.7 |
-2.1 |
| Liberty |
6.1 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
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-23.5 |
-21.8 |
-6.1 |
7.6 |
| Okaloosa |
788.0 |
948.5 |
905.5 |
741.3 |
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-3.8 |
-5.0 |
-2.7 |
-8.0 |
| Santa Rosa |
255.5 |
275.8 |
265.5 |
257.5 |
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-6.0 |
-5.0 |
0.0 |
-0.8 |
| Wakulla |
39.2 |
43.9 |
41.6 |
39.9 |
|
21.6 |
20.3 |
5.8 |
-0.3 |
| Walton |
255.6 |
417.1 |
372.5 |
240.6 |
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-5.8 |
3.4 |
0.3 |
-2.3 |
| Washington |
36.7 |
35.8 |
35.3 |
36.3 |
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9.0 |
2.1 |
10.0 |
1.1 |
| Region |
4,486.9 |
5,030.1 |
4,824.9 |
4,358.6 |
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-2.1 |
-2.9 |
-2.4 |
-4.6 |
Original Data Sources: Florida Department of Revenue. Data retrieved on 7/25/08. Note: Sales data values are in millions of dollars.
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